The Federal Government is facing a major revenue setback in 2025, with projections showing a shortfall of about ₦30 trillion, according to the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun.
Edun disclosed this on Wednesday in Abuja while addressing members of the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper.
The finance minister explained that although the government had projected ₦40.8 trillion in revenue to fund the 2025 budget, actual earnings are now expected to close the year at around ₦10.7 trillion.
“Based on the current trajectory, federal revenue for the full year is likely to end at about ₦10.7 trillion, far below the ₦40.8 trillion that was initially projected,” Edun told lawmakers.
He attributed the significant gap largely to weak performance in the oil and gas sector, particularly shortfalls in petroleum profit tax and company income tax, alongside underperformance from other revenue streams.
Despite the revenue challenge, Edun assured lawmakers that the government has continued to meet its core financial responsibilities through what he described as prudent and innovative treasury management.
According to him, salaries, statutory transfers, and both domestic and foreign debt obligations have been serviced consistently, despite the funding pressures.
The finance minister, however, warned against committing to rigid spending plans based on uncertain revenue projections, especially those tied to oil earnings. He stressed the need for greater flexibility in fiscal planning.
“We have to be ambitious, but our experience over the last two years shows that expenditure tied to oil revenues must depend on what actually comes in,” Edun said.
Also speaking at the session, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, noted that the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper were developed following extensive consultations with key government agencies and private-sector stakeholders.
Bagudu disclosed that while the government is projecting oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day for the 2026 budget, a more conservative estimate of 1.84 million barrels per day would be used for revenue calculations.
Meanwhile, the Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, James Faleke, urged lawmakers and economic managers to apply rigorous analysis to fiscal decisions, warning against policies that could worsen economic vulnerabilities.