President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has narrowly placed ahead of Peter Obi in the final results of the Oxford-Metro Analytics National Trust Poll ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.
Tinubu recorded 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the poll’s 69,110 approved and unflagged responses, while Obi received 23,402 responses, equivalent to 33.86 per cent.
The difference between the two leading political figures was 1,067 responses, or roughly 1.55 percentage points.
The poll closed on September 7, with the final dataset containing 69,110 approved responses.
Atiku Places Third
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar finished third in the exercise with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total participation.
The result places the three major opposition and governing political figures relatively close together, although Tinubu maintained a narrow lead over Obi.
However, the figures should not be interpreted as an electoral prediction.
Oxford-Metro’s own website explicitly describes the exercise as an open public pulse vote, stating that it is “not an INEC election” and “not scientific polling.”
That distinction is important because scientific opinion polls generally use defined sampling methodologies designed to make findings representative of a wider population.
The Oxford-Metro exercise, by contrast, reflects responses from people who participated in the online poll.
Tinubu Leads in Several Regions
The published results show significant regional differences.
Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central, while Obi recorded his strongest performance in the South-East.
According to the reported figures, Tinubu received 10,968 responses in the South-West, representing 43.53 per cent of the region’s participation.
He also recorded 4,129 responses in the North-West, equivalent to 43.10 per cent, and 6,370 responses in the North-Central, representing 36.97 per cent.
Obi’s strongest regional performance came in the South-East, where he recorded 5,796 responses, or 63.97 per cent of the region’s total.
The regional figures illustrate the continuing geographical differences in political support ahead of 2027.
Poll Comes Amid Intensifying Political Contest
The Oxford-Metro result comes as Nigeria’s major political camps step up preparations for the 2027 election.
Tinubu is seeking another term on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, while Obi is positioning himself as a major opposition candidate under the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
Atiku also remains a significant figure in the opposition political landscape.
The closeness of the Oxford-Metro result between Tinubu and Obi reflects the intense competition already developing around the next presidential election.
However, the poll’s methodology means its figures should be treated as an indication of participation in that particular online exercise rather than evidence that either candidate currently has a specific percentage of Nigeria’s electorate behind them.
What the Numbers Mean
The significance of the poll may lie less in predicting the final election result and more in highlighting the political engagement surrounding the three major figures.
With the 2027 election still ahead, political alliances, campaign structures, voter preferences and economic conditions can all change.
The eventual election will also be determined by registered voters who participate through the official electoral process, rather than respondents to an online public poll.
For now, the Oxford-Metro dataset gives Tinubu a narrow lead over Obi, with Atiku trailing in third place.
Whether that ranking reflects broader national voter sentiment will only become clearer through more robust polling, electoral mobilisation and, ultimately, the official results of the 2027 election.